Mailbag: Will Ichiro ever be Hall-bound?

01/16/2006
With all of the Hall of Fame talk going on right now, it got me thinking of Ichiro. Is it possible that Ichiro could make it into the Hall of Fame? I know he is already in his 30s with five seasons in Major League Baseball, but is it possible he could squeeze in 10 more awesome seasons and have a chance? -- Zach V., Grand Forks AFB, N.D.
It's very possible, and, if he decides to play 10 more years and stays healthy, it's downright probable. Right off the bat, you look at his superb career batting average (.332), which is clearly Hall of Fame-caliber. His defense is unquestionably Hall of Fame-worthy. He already has a huge Major League record under his belt with the 262 hits in 2004, which broke George Sisler's 84-year-old single-season mark.
But the key stat for a guy like Ichiro would be 3,000 career hits, a sure ticket to Cooperstown. In only five years, Ichiro has 1,130 hits, an average of 226 per season. At this rate, he'll get the necessary 1,870 hits to reach 3,000 in 1,340 more games, or 8.27 seasons, which is sometime in 2013. Yeah, he'll be 40 then, but if any athlete could stay in shape for that long, it's Ichiro, right? The key is health, and Albert Belle, Don Mattingly and many other players will tell you that it isn't as easy as it seems.
Is there any possibility that the Mariners might use Rafael Soriano as a starter? He was great as a starter in Triple-A before being called up. If one of the present starters falters, it would be good to have someone ready. -- Marv C., Bremerton, Wash.
Mike Hargrove said in December that pretty much any pitcher in the organization would be "considered" to eventually start games, and Soriano certainly has starting experience, but it would be shocking if the team had Soriano starting games this year. Soriano pitched in only seven games last year after coming back from Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery, so the team is going to want to ease him back into the mix. Also, he was good enough as a setup man in 2003 (1.53 ERA), the last time he was healthy, that the Mariners are most likely going to want Soriano to fit right back into a similar role in this year's bullpen.
Do you see a possibility of Kevin Appier making the starting rotation? If so, who goes to the bullpen, or does Gil Meche or Joel Pineiro get traded? -- Pat W., Long Beach, Wash.
If one of the Mariners' projected five starters -- Jamie Moyer, Jarrod Washburn, Felix Hernandez, Pineiro and Meche -- gets hurt in Spring Training, I think Appier has a shot at making the starting rotation simply by attrition. If they all stay healthy, I'd say it's a big-time longshot, particularly because Appier is coming off major injuries himself -- he didn't pitch for the majority of 2004 and all of 2005 -- and wasn't effective the last time he did pitch on a regular basis in 2003.
When he was healthy in 2002, Appier was a crafty, useful right-hander for the Angels, but he's four years older now and doesn't throw very hard. He'll provide a veteran presence in camp and bring the spirit of competition to the five front-runners for the rotation, but I wouldn't expect much more from "Ape" in a Mariners uniform.
Assuming that Carl Everett gets the starting job at designated hitter and Yuniesky Betancourt starts at shortstop, what do you think the lineup will look like? -- Malcolm P., Phoenix
Here's a very unofficial and probably incorrect stab at the lineup with my explanations for each pick, all the while under the assumption that everyone is healthy and reasonably productive during Spring Training:
1. Ichiro, RF: Still the leadoff man ... for now2. Jeremy Reed, CF: Gets another shot at the two-hole with a good spring3. Raul Ibanez, LF: Steady in a run-production spot, as usual4. Richie Sexson, 1B: No questions here after big 20055. Adrian Beltre, 3B: The team continues to hope for a big year6. Everett, DH: Fits in this spot; gives Beltre some protection7. Kenji Johjima, C: Unknown so far, but good numbers in Japan8. Jose Lopez, 2B: Can develop needed patience in this spot9. Betancourt, SS: Speed and gap power in front of Ichiro
Washburn looks like a good addition to the Mariners' rotation. However, he was only 8-8 for a good Angels team in spite of his 3.20 ERA last year. That suggests he is erratic, pitching one good game, then one bad game. What can you tell us about his consistency? -- Raymond W., Kirkland, Wash.
Washburn is not spectacular. He won't blow you away with a Felix-like fastball and he doesn't have a Barry Zito-type curveball. He gets by on lefty location with a high-80s to low-90s fastball, a decent slider, a developing changeup, and old-fashioned guts. One of the reasons he was 8-8 last year despite the fourth-best ERA in the American League was that he didn't get very good run support. Others argue that his .500 record was about right because he's basically an average-quality pitcher. I would give him a bit more credit than that.
He won 18 games with a 3.15 ERA in 2002, had legitimate injury excuses in 2003 (shoulder pain all year after Spring Training injury) and 2004 (cartilage tear in chest), then put up the 3.20 ERA last year despite elbow and forearm problems. That tells me that Washburn, if healthy, projects to be a solid starter for the Mariners in 2006 -- not Cy Young Award-caliber but certainly a candidate to win 10-15 games and have an ERA somewhere between 3.50 and 4.50, which would be a big help for the staff.

Source: http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/